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ODDS-ON ALSO-RANS AT DEL MAR

August 10, 2017
by TrendsandTopics
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This meeting at Del Mar, starting 7/21/17, the first seven odds-on favorites lost.  I took a look at that statistically, and found that a string of losers of this kind will occur at random only once every 2500 meetings.

To derive the likelihood of the occurrence of a series of events, multiple the likelihoods of the occurrence of each individual event.  For example, the occurrence of a couple having a boy is 1/2, so the likelihood of having three boys in a row is  1/2 times 1/2 times 1/2, which is 1/8.

When horses are bet heavily, only to lose, money is transferred from the many fans who lost to the few fans who won.  This tends to take money out of the hands of the casual fan.

The lesson here is that excessive enthusiasm is deadly to the gambler.  If you consistently bet too large a percent of your available capital, you are bound to lose, even if you have a winning system.

At the casino or the racetrack, the only real thing is your money.  You can take that to the bank.

 

HORSE’S NAME ODDS SHOULD LOSE % FRACTION IS LIKELIHOOD IF RANDOM OCCURS RANDOMLY EVERY X YEARS
Pacific Wind 0.5 33.33 0.3333 0.000353 353/1000000
Mrs. McDougal 0.9 47.22 0.4722 equivalent to
Ashleyluvssugar 0.7 40.97 0.4097 4/10000
Arrogate 0.05 6 0.06 equivalent to
Private Terrace 0.9 47.22 0.4722 1.0/2500
Stealth Drone 0.7 40.97 0.4097 equivalent to
Looking at TheLake 0.9 47.22 0.4722 Once every 2500 years
About the Author
Despite a demanding schedule as an ER doctor for 30 years, I've maintained an avid pursuit of my avocations. This blog is dedicated to sharing what I have learned. - Joe Fiore, MD
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