This meeting at Del Mar, starting 7/21/17, the first seven odds-on favorites lost. I took a look at that statistically, and found that a string of losers of this kind will occur at random only once every 2500 meetings.
To derive the likelihood of the occurrence of a series of events, multiple the likelihoods of the occurrence of each individual event. For example, the occurrence of a couple having a boy is 1/2, so the likelihood of having three boys in a row is 1/2 times 1/2 times 1/2, which is 1/8.
When horses are bet heavily, only to lose, money is transferred from the many fans who lost to the few fans who won. This tends to take money out of the hands of the casual fan.
The lesson here is that excessive enthusiasm is deadly to the gambler. If you consistently bet too large a percent of your available capital, you are bound to lose, even if you have a winning system.
At the casino or the racetrack, the only real thing is your money. You can take that to the bank.
| HORSE’S NAME | ODDS | SHOULD LOSE % | FRACTION IS | LIKELIHOOD IF RANDOM | OCCURS RANDOMLY EVERY X YEARS |
| Pacific Wind | 0.5 | 33.33 | 0.3333 | 0.000353 | 353/1000000 |
| Mrs. McDougal | 0.9 | 47.22 | 0.4722 | equivalent to | |
| Ashleyluvssugar | 0.7 | 40.97 | 0.4097 | 4/10000 | |
| Arrogate | 0.05 | 6 | 0.06 | equivalent to | |
| Private Terrace | 0.9 | 47.22 | 0.4722 | 1.0/2500 | |
| Stealth Drone | 0.7 | 40.97 | 0.4097 | equivalent to | |
| Looking at TheLake | 0.9 | 47.22 | 0.4722 | Once every 2500 years |
